Two current Mets target were in the news today. First off, George Springer.
According to ShiDavidi, the Blue Jays have progressed in talks with the free agent center fielder. ShiDavidi said “the Blue Jays are more then just talking”. Springer is a major target for the Mets their free agent hole in CF, but could go for the north side of the border.
That wasn’t the only news about a major free agent and this didn’t come from a reporter, but the owner of the Phillies. The Phillies owner John Middleton said that the Phillies can not afford to re-sign Realmuto due to major financial loses during the COVID-19 Pandemic. This means a major rival in signing Realmuto, is out. This makes a Realmuto to Mets even more likely.
Jo Adell was drafted by the Angels 10th overall in the 2017 draft and was praised for having the athleticism of an elite defensive player. The toolsy outfielder has been described as a potential franchise player. His scouting report has his tool ranked at the following: 45-55 Hit , 60-70 Power, 60-65 Speed, 50-60 Arm, and 50-60 Field. He had a very disappointing freshman year offensively, and made a horrendous defensive play that went viral when he allowed a rare four-base error when Texas Rangers Nick Solak hit a fly ball that popped out of Adell glove and went over the wall for a home run. Maybe a change of scenery may help the youngster unlock his super star potential?
The Angels already have a superstar at CF in Mike Trout, and have two other toolsy OF prospects almost ready (Brandon Marsh ETA 2021 and Jordyn Adams 2022) not named Jo Adell. They also have big money tied up at LF with Justin Upton manning the spot until the end of 2022 and Trout is locked up at CF through 2030 (although towards the end of the contract he might see more times in the OF corners or MAYBE DH). The Angels seem to be interested in putting a contending team as they recently signed Anthony Rendon but never seem to put the pieces together. The Angels have a need at SS, a position where the Mets can afford to move (especially if they are targeting Lindor) and a need for a starting Pitcher. The Mets have a need for a true CF. The two might be able to work out a trade.
Adell has slashed a respectable 298/361/518 in his combined minor league career and I expect him to hit in a similar way in the MLB level but with a slightly lower BA (.260-.270) and much more power. Remember that Adell is only 21 years old and is still developing so if he adjusts to the MLB level, he would be one of the top CF in the game. He’s been compared to Melvin Upton Jr and Bryon Buxton because of how athletics he is but he has the ceiling of achieving higher status if his bat comes together. CF has been one of the Mets weakest position defensively for the last few years and since trading Jared Kelenic, the Mets could afford to bring back some excitement in that position. Steve Cohen hinted at looking to improve the team via trades and the farm, so maybe the Mets can tap into Adell and unlock his super star status.
What would it cost? Teams are looking to stay young so acquiring such hyped up youngster under team control through 2027 may be costly. The Angels would want back some MLB ready asset they can control. However, since the Angels need a SS to replace Simmons , I believe that the Mets can negotiate a deal using Andres Gimenez as the key piece to the deal. The Angels have over $118 million committed to Trout, Pujols, Rendon and Upton for the 2021 season so it would make sense for them to attempt to seek out a cheap option at SS. Gimenez + J.T. Ginn or Thomas Szupucki and Junior Santos should be enough to buy low on the potential superstar CFer.
A lot of Mets pages talk about the big free agents. JT Realmuto, Trevor Bauer and George Springer are names mentioned as the Mets primair targets. However, I can not imagine the Mets signing the top three free agents this off-season, even with the Steve Cohen being the new owner.
So, let’s take a look at some of the free agents, lower in the ranks. First up, Kevin Gausman.
Gausman, is coming off a strong showing with the Giants. The 29 year old pitched to a 3.62 ERA/3.09FIP over 59.2 innings. Gausman struck out 11.9 per nine and allowed just 7.5 hits per nine, both career best.
The swing and miss stuff that Gausman showed, was a major plus. He was in the 88th percentile in K% and in the 84th percentile in whiff%. Big part of that improvement is his use if his splitfinger. He has used his four seamer less and his splitter more. Hitters aren’t doing a lot on his splitter: .123 XBA .150 XWOBA .196 XSLG. Those are ridiculous numbers. Funny thing about his splitter, that the more he used it, the worst succes hitters have against that pitch.
His 2020 success is explained with an adjustment. Using his splitter (best pitch) more and more and getting great results with it. Reason I do believe Gausman can keep this success going forward. Overall in his career he pitched to a 4.23 ERA and a 4.06 FIP in 985.1 innings. So the hope his recent adjustment will keep his 2020 results.
Money wise, Gausman won’t break the bank. According to fangraphs, he will likely sign a deal around 2-3 years woth 12-14 mil per year. Solid arm for that type of money IMO.